Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 46.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 59¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$10.7K
$783.73
59.1¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 60¢ | $3.3K | $4.6K | -$27.27 | 68% 3517-1687 (5204) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 59.7¢ | $2.4K | $3.3K | +$957.12 | 55% 12118-9997 (22115) |
 RN1 | Underavg 54¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$49.41 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
FO Forecastication2 | Underavg 60¢ | $385.2 | $539.28 | +$154.08 | 61% 4538-2871 (7409) |
28 2829 | Underavg 72.5¢ | $290 | $336 | +$46 | 47% 346-394 (740) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 43.8¢ | $442.6 | $161.55 | -$281.05 | 52% 6769-6181 (12950) |
AN Anon455CTR | Overavg 42.2¢ | $184.49 | $69.93 | -$114.56 | 56% 2027-1581 (3608) |
Invested
$3,271.8
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$27.27
Record
68%
3517-1687 (5204)
Invested
$2,354.26
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$957.12
Record
55%
12118-9997 (22115)
RN1Invested
$1,624.48
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$49.41
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
Invested
$385.2
Value
$539.28
PnL
+$154.08
Record
61%
4538-2871 (7409)
Invested
$290
Value
$336
PnL
+$46
Record
47%
346-394 (740)
Invested
$442.6
Value
$161.55
PnL
-$281.05
Record
52%
6769-6181 (12950)
Invested
$184.49
Value
$69.93
PnL
-$114.56
Record
56%
2027-1581 (3608)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.