Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 42.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 70¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 25

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

-$66.64

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 69.5¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares22,996

Combined PnL-$197.23

Over6 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares20,258

Combined PnL+$130.58

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Underavg 48.7¢	$9.8K	$9.6K	-$150	52% 129-119 (248)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 51¢	$5.9K	$6.0K	+$120.27	55% 12114-9994 (22108)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 53¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$55	51% 979-932 (1911)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	+$54.55	58% 31660-22917 (54577)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 51¢	$573.75	$585	+$11.25	56% 6354-5091 (11445)
PW Pwaddler	Underavg 47¢	$565.77	$577.81	+$12.04	48% 378-415 (793)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$782.35	$520.21	-$262.15	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
└ Under leg	Underavg 73.7¢	$262.35	$265.21	+$2.85
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$520	$255	-$265
ComingBack	Underavg 48¢	$500	$500	-$5.21	62% 3694-2243 (5937)
28 2829	Underavg 75.1¢	$560.93	$415.44	-$54.28	47% 346-392 (738)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 52.1¢	$395.26	$394.77	-$0.49	52% 6768-6179 (12947)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$38.06	$38.06	+$0	59% 13895-9640 (23535)
PR primm<$100	Underavg 60.1¢	$37.6	$37.83	+$0.23	46% 987-1174 (2161)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Under

Invested

$9,784.9

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$150

Record

52%

129-119 (248)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$5,912.22

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$120.27

Record

55%

12114-9994 (22108)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$2,915

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$55

Record

51%

979-932 (1911)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,901.08

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$54.55

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$573.75

Value

$585

PnL

+$11.25

Record

56%

6354-5091 (11445)

Pwaddler

Under

Invested

$565.77

Value

$577.81

PnL

+$12.04

Record

48%

378-415 (793)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$782.35

Value

$520.21

PnL

-$262.15

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

Both legs:

Under$262.3573.7¢+$2.85

Over$52052¢-$265

ComingBack

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

-$5.21

Record

62%

3694-2243 (5937)

2829

Under

Invested

$560.93

Value

$415.44

PnL

-$54.28

Record

47%

346-392 (738)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$395.26

Value

$394.77

PnL

-$0.49

Record

52%

6768-6179 (12947)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.06

Value

$38.06

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

13895-9640 (23535)

primm<$100

Under

Invested

$37.6

Value

$37.83

PnL

+$0.23

Record

46%

987-1174 (2161)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.