Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (70%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 26.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 30¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$310.87
33.6¢ → 29.5¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Underavg 24.7¢ | $2.9K | $1.6K | +$900.2 | 52% 6781-6193 (12974) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 43.6¢ | $1.4K | $850.7 | -$564.48 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 43.6¢ | $1.1K | $526.62 | -$617.16 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 59¢ | $271.4 | $324.08 | +$52.68 | |
ET ethanazCTR | Underavg 43.7¢ | $1.1K | $504.16 | -$592.83 | 52% 538-499 (1037) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Underavg 42.8¢ | $25.64 | $14.48 | +$3.5 | 56% 2033-1584 (3617) |
Invested
$2,882.81
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$900.2
Record
52%
6781-6193 (12974)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,415.18
Value
$850.7
PnL
-$564.48
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,096.99
Value
$504.16
PnL
-$592.83
Record
52%
538-499 (1037)
Invested
$25.64
Value
$14.48
PnL
+$3.5
Record
56%
2033-1584 (3617)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.