Saints Team Total: O/U 20.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 53¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 50%
$6.8K
-$109.23
50.5¢ → 53¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
32 32555 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$3.42 | 51% 75-73 (148) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Overavg 49.9¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$104.31 | 50% 1770-1781 (3551) |
SL slimjoeCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $150 | $139.5 | -$1.5 | 52% 5323-4932 (10255) |
BA Bayupati | Underavg 51¢ | $113.29 | $113.29 | +$0 | 50% 155-157 (312) |
Invested
$4,800
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$3.42
Record
51%
75-73 (148)
Invested
$1,785.66
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$104.31
Record
50%
1770-1781 (3551)
Invested
$150
Value
$139.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
52%
5323-4932 (10255)
Invested
$113.29
Value
$113.29
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
155-157 (312)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.