Spread: Steelers (-7.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (33%) · Saints at 70¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Steelers30¢Saints70¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$169.82

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 70¢

+15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Steelers30%

Saints70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints2 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares14,065

Combined PnL+$56.97

Steelers4 traders

Total Value$663.67

Total Shares1,761

Combined PnL+$112.84

Saints — 33%Steelers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSteelers 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Steelers 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Saintsavg 60¢	$6.8K	$7.0K	+$113.99	55% 3016-2456 (5472)
AN Anon455	Saintsavg 65.6¢	$2.7K	$1.7K	-$57.02	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
RN1ARB<$100	Steelersavg 44.8¢	$856.9	$895.88	+$38.98	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
└ Steelers leg	Steelersavg 44.8¢	$505.66	$451.75	-$53.91
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 55.4¢	$351.24	$444.13	+$92.89
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Steelersavg 31.5¢	$1.7K	$632.16	+$100.53	52% 6781-6193 (12974)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Steelersavg 24¢	$40	$14.8	+$5.2	56% 468-363 (831)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Steelersavg 27¢	$17.77	$10.13	+$5.33	52% 219-201 (420)
AD adururuCTR<$100	Steelersavg 27¢	$4.8	$6.57	+$1.78	54% 292-248 (540)

takeormake

Saints

Invested

$6,839.4

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$113.99

Record

55%

3016-2456 (5472)

Anon455

Saints

Invested

$2,666.31

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$57.02

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

RN1ARB<$100

Steelers

Invested

$856.9

Value

$895.88

PnL

+$38.98

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Both legs:

Steelers$505.6644.8¢-$53.91

Saints$351.2455.4¢+$92.89

justaluckydudeCTR

Steelers

Invested

$1,685.77

Value

$632.16

PnL

+$100.53

Record

52%

6781-6193 (12974)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$40

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$5.2

Record

56%

468-363 (831)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$17.77

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$5.33

Record

52%

219-201 (420)

adururuCTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$4.8

Value

$6.57

PnL

+$1.78

Record

54%

292-248 (540)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSteelers 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Steelers 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.