Spread: Steelers (-6.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (33%) · Saints at 60¢ · $28K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Saints
6
Saints 33%
2 arb excluded
$28.3K
$746.9
63.4¢ → 60.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaints at 60%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Saintsavg 55.6¢ | $13.0K | $7.9K | +$631.71 | 55% 12144-10023 (22167) |
PR primmCTR | Steelersavg 32¢ | $13.3K | $5.2K | +$992.91 | 46% 987-1174 (2161) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Steelersavg 46.9¢ | $4.3K | $4.2K | -$76.72 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
| └ Steelers leg | Steelersavg 46.9¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$58.93 | |
| └ Saints leg | Saintsavg 53.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$17.79 | |
 Nooserac | Saintsavg 78¢ | $6.9K | $4.2K | $-1.2K | 52% 5272-4847 (10119) |
 one8tyfiveCTR | Steelersavg 44.7¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$98.35 | 65% 2038-1099 (3137) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Steelersavg 34.6¢ | $4.8K | $1.9K | +$232.78 | 52% 6781-6193 (12974) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Saintsavg 59¢ | $10.1K | $1.3K | +$46.39 | 56% 2033-1584 (3617) |
| └ Saints leg | Saintsavg 59¢ | $859.16 | $910.59 | +$51.39 | |
| └ Steelers leg | Steelersavg 38¢ | $380.01 | $375.01 | -$5 | |
DH dhgregCTR<$100 | Steelersavg 36¢ | $19.62 | $25.07 | -$1.91 | — 4-5 (9) |
Invested
$13,024.67
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$631.71
Record
55%
12144-10023 (22167)
Invested
$13,283.2
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$992.91
Record
46%
987-1174 (2161)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$4,295.36
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$76.72
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
Both legs:
NooseracInvested
$6,896.83
Value
$4.2K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
52%
5272-4847 (10119)
one8tyfiveCTRInvested
$3,501.62
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$98.35
Record
65%
2038-1099 (3137)
Invested
$4,800.32
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$232.78
Record
52%
6781-6193 (12974)
Invested
$10,134.98
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$46.39
Record
56%
2033-1584 (3617)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.62
Value
$25.07
PnL
-$1.91
Record
—
4-5 (9)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.