Spread: Steelers (-5.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (56%) · Saints at 62¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Steelers39¢Saints61¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$17.71

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 61.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Steelers39%

Saints62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints5 traders

Total Value$284.99

Total Shares460

Combined PnL+$13.8

Steelers4 traders

Total Value$17.19

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$3.91

Saints — 56%Steelers — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Saintsavg 53.1¢	$868.5	$1.0K	+$135.05	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 53.1¢	$533.5	$653.56	+$120.05
└ Steelers leg	Steelersavg 45¢	$450	$350	+$15
VeryLucky888<$100	Saintsavg 60¢	$95.99	$95.99	-$8	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
0xheavy888<$100	Saintsavg 60¢	$67.2	$67.2	+$0	56% 6357-5092 (11449)
TA takeormake<$100	Saintsavg 48¢	$48	$65	+$17	55% 3012-2453 (5465)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Saintsavg 59¢	$47.2	$52	+$4.8	52% 6769-6181 (12950)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Steelersavg 35¢	$5.06	$8.05	+$2.99	56% 465-363 (828)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Saintsavg 60¢	$4.8	$4.8	+$0	68% 3517-1687 (5204)
AD adururuCTR<$100	Steelersavg 37¢	$4.02	$3.8	-$0.22	54% 289-246 (535)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Steelersavg 37¢	$2.66	$3.8	+$1.14	52% 216-198 (414)
RN1CTR<$100	Steelersavg 38¢	$1.53	$1.53	-$0	55% 43540-35826 (79366)

Anon455ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$868.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$135.05

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

Both legs:

Saints$533.553.1¢+$120.05

Steelers$45045¢+$15

VeryLucky888<$100

Saints

Invested

$95.99

Value

$95.99

PnL

-$8

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

0xheavy888<$100

Saints

Invested

$67.2

Value

$67.2

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

6357-5092 (11449)

takeormake<$100

Saints

Invested

$48

Value

$65

PnL

+$17

Record

55%

3012-2453 (5465)

justaluckydude<$100

Saints

Invested

$47.2

Value

$52

PnL

+$4.8

Record

52%

6769-6181 (12950)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$5.06

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$2.99

Record

56%

465-363 (828)

SunlineTicker<$100

Saints

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

3517-1687 (5204)

adururuCTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$4.02

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.22

Record

54%

289-246 (535)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$2.66

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$1.14

Record

52%

216-198 (414)

RN1CTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$1.53

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 62%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.