Spread: Steelers (-4.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Steelers (29%) · Steelers at 70¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Steelers70¢Saints30¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Steelers

Consensus Traders

Steelers 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$627.32

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 70¢

+27% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralSteelers at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Steelers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Steelers70%

Saints30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Steelers2 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,607

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Saints5 traders

Total Value$76.56

Total Shares1,408

Combined PnL-$573.86

Steelers — 29%Saints — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Steelers) and the top 1000 (6 on Saints) disagree here.

whaleSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSaints 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedSteelers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Saints 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	Steelersavg 57.1¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	+$1.2K	52% 6781-6193 (12974)
RN1ARB<$100	Saintsavg 46.6¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$156.27	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 46.6¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$157.04
└ Steelers leg	Steelersavg 69.9¢	$768.63	$769.41	+$0.77
VeryLucky888	Steelersavg 43¢	$228.47	$367.69	+$18.38	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
AN Anon455CTR	Saintsavg 45.8¢	$1.3K	$69.11	-$508.05	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Saintsavg 48¢	$129.98	$5.85	-$56.54	46% 368-429 (797)
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100	Saintsavg 33¢	$16.49	$0.74	-$4.7	56% 468-363 (831)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100	Saintsavg 41¢	$6.63	$0.56	-$2.15	52% 219-201 (420)
AD adururuCTR<$100	Saintsavg 41¢	$6.63	$0.3	-$2.42	54% 292-248 (540)

justaluckydude

Steelers

Invested

$3,081.28

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

52%

6781-6193 (12974)

RN1ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$2,067.11

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$156.27

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Both legs:

Saints$1,298.4846.6¢-$157.04

Steelers$768.6369.9¢+$0.77

VeryLucky888

Steelers

Invested

$228.47

Value

$367.69

PnL

+$18.38

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

Anon455CTR

Saints

Invested

$1,253.56

Value

$69.11

PnL

-$508.05

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Saints

Invested

$129.98

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$56.54

Record

46%

368-429 (797)

averagejoetradersCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$16.49

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$4.7

Record

56%

468-363 (831)

oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$6.63

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$2.15

Record

52%

219-201 (420)

adururuCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$6.63

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$2.42

Record

54%

292-248 (540)

Research grade

NeutralSteelers at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Steelers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Steelers) and the top 1000 (6 on Saints) disagree here.

whaleSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSaints 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedSteelers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Saints 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Steelers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.