Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Saints, while the market favors Steelers (55%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Steelers (-2.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (100%) · Saints at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Saints
5
Saints 100%
$1.6K
$22.82
44.8¢ → 45.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaints at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Steelers 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Saintsavg 45¢ | $961.93 | $972.62 | +$10.69 | 50% 1003-985 (1988) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Saintsavg 44¢ | $463.76 | $474.3 | +$15.81 | 61% 4366-2803 (7169) |
SL slimjoeCTR<$100 | Saintsavg 47¢ | $69.16 | $66.22 | -$3.68 | 52% 5323-4932 (10255) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Saintsavg 45¢ | $50.4 | $50.4 | -$0 | 55% 6317-5068 (11385) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Saintsavg 45¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 | 36% 12781-22373 (35154) |
Invested
$961.93
Value
$972.62
PnL
+$10.69
Record
50%
1003-985 (1988)
Invested
$463.76
Value
$474.3
PnL
+$15.81
Record
61%
4366-2803 (7169)
Invested
$69.16
Value
$66.22
PnL
-$3.68
Record
52%
5323-4932 (10255)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$50.4
Value
$50.4
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
6317-5068 (11385)
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
12781-22373 (35154)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.