Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Saints, while the market favors Steelers (62%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Steelers (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (80%) · Saints at 39¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Saints
5
Saints 80%
2 arb excluded
$8.7K
-$38.86
39.6¢ → 38.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaints at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Steelers 62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Steelersavg 61.6¢ | $4.0K | $4.2K | +$151.35 | 55% 12118-9997 (22115) |
| └ Steelers leg | Steelersavg 61.6¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$70.97 | |
| └ Saints leg | Saintsavg 34.1¢ | $943.57 | $1.0K | +$80.38 | |
 RN1 | Steelersavg 61¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$12.67 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Steelersavg 63.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$50.16 | 56% 2027-1581 (3608) |
| └ Steelers leg | Steelersavg 63.6¢ | $947.91 | $938.39 | +$27.72 | |
| └ Saints leg | Saintsavg 43.2¢ | $541.73 | $463.86 | -$77.87 | |
 NooseracCTR | Saintsavg 39¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$17.76 | 52% 5261-4836 (10097) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Saintsavg 43¢ | $244.24 | $210.16 | -$34.08 | 66% 2853-1494 (4347) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Saintsavg 42¢ | $1.98 | $2.31 | +$0.33 | 56% 6357-5092 (11449) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Saintsavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $1.93 | -$0.02 | 63% 22592-13331 (35923) |
Invested
$4,003.06
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$151.35
Record
55%
12118-9997 (22115)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$1,547.55
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$12.67
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
Invested
$1,489.64
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$50.16
Record
56%
2027-1581 (3608)
Both legs:
NooseracCTRInvested
$1,384.89
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$17.76
Record
52%
5261-4836 (10097)
Invested
$244.24
Value
$210.16
PnL
-$34.08
Record
66%
2853-1494 (4347)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$1.98
Value
$2.31
PnL
+$0.33
Record
56%
6357-5092 (11449)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.93
PnL
-$0.02
Record
63%
22592-13331 (35923)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.