Giants vs. Texans: O/U 46.5

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 83¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 14%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$182.79

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,577

Combined PnL+$146.3

Over6 traders

Total Value$906.11

Total Shares3,793

Combined PnL-$329.09

Under — 14%Over — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 52¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$146.3	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 23.7¢	$466.25	$334.42	-$131.83	52% 6908-6279 (13187)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 40¢	$400	$225	-$175	56% 2060-1620 (3680)
SH shoemanhereCTR	Overavg 44¢	$225	$214.77	-$10.23	63% 4859-2904 (7763)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$92	$84	-$8	61% 2641-1682 (4323)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$86.88	$47.73	-$3.95	58% 6085-4492 (10577)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$0.26	$0.18	-$0.09	55% 3039-2470 (5509)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,523.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$146.3

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$466.25

Value

$334.42

PnL

-$131.83

Record

52%

6908-6279 (13187)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$400

Value

$225

PnL

-$175

Record

56%

2060-1620 (3680)

shoemanhereCTR

Over

Invested

$225

Value

$214.77

PnL

-$10.23

Record

63%

4859-2904 (7763)

shiifooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92

Value

$84

PnL

-$8

Record

61%

2641-1682 (4323)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$86.88

Value

$47.73

PnL

-$3.95

Record

58%

6085-4492 (10577)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.09

Record

55%

3039-2470 (5509)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.