Giants vs. Texans: O/U 44.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$14.99

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 67.5¢

+30% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$653.11

Total Shares1,287

Combined PnL-$13.24

Under3 traders

Total Value$112.23

Total Shares272

Combined PnL-$1.75

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 57.3¢	$970.5	$872.41	-$98.09	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.3¢	$498.5	$487.2	-$11.3
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.9¢	$472	$385.21	-$86.79
PR primm	Overavg 53¢	$484.86	$489.43	+$4.57	46% 987-1174 (2161)
NA NatoAlfista	Overavg 44¢	$103.4	$103.4	+$0	66% 2856-1504 (4360)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$62.72	$62.72	+$0.56	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 57¢	$78.09	$60.28	-$17.81	55% 3020-2458 (5478)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$40.99	$38.87	-$2.12	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$10.83	$10.64	-$0.19	52% 6814-6216 (13030)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$970.5

Value

$872.41

PnL

-$98.09

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

Both legs:

Under$498.557.3¢-$11.3

Over$47253.9¢-$86.79

primm

Over

Invested

$484.86

Value

$489.43

PnL

+$4.57

Record

46%

987-1174 (2161)

NatoAlfista

Over

Invested

$103.4

Value

$103.4

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

2856-1504 (4360)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.72

Value

$62.72

PnL

+$0.56

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$78.09

Value

$60.28

PnL

-$17.81

Record

55%

3020-2458 (5478)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.99

Value

$38.87

PnL

-$2.12

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.83

Value

$10.64

PnL

-$0.19

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.