Giants vs. Texans: O/U 42.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 52¢ · $36K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$36.0K
-$61.36
51.8¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PW Pwaddler | Overavg 51.9¢ | $21.8K | $21.6K | -$155.48 | 48% 378-415 (793) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Underavg 48.1¢ | $13.3K | $13.4K | +$98.04 | 50% 1012-1005 (2017) |
 ComingBack | Overavg 51¢ | $500 | $500 | -$4.9 | 62% 3694-2243 (5937) |
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $392 | $392 | -$0 | 53% 125-110 (235) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $53.76 | $54.32 | +$0.56 | 56% 6357-5092 (11449) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $31.36 | $31.36 | +$0.32 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $9.8 | $9.8 | +$0.1 | 75% 2665-901 (3566) |
Invested
$21,762.71
Value
$21.6K
PnL
-$155.48
Record
48%
378-415 (793)
Invested
$13,286.71
Value
$13.4K
PnL
+$98.04
Record
50%
1012-1005 (2017)
ComingBackInvested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
-$4.9
Record
62%
3694-2243 (5937)
Invested
$392
Value
$392
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
125-110 (235)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$53.76
Value
$54.32
PnL
+$0.56
Record
56%
6357-5092 (11449)
Invested
$31.36
Value
$31.36
PnL
+$0.32
Record
54%
13815-11594 (25409)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$0.1
Record
75%
2665-901 (3566)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.