Spread: Texans (-6.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (75%) · Giants at 65¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Giants
4
Giants 75%
$3.0K
-$704.18
82.7¢ → 65¢
-21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralGiants at 65%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US User7429 | Giantsavg 98¢ | $3.0K | $2.0K | $-1.0K | 58% 6085-4492 (10577) |
AN Anon455 | Giantsavg 36¢ | $360 | $755 | +$395 | 56% 2060-1620 (3680) |
JU justaluckydude | Giantsavg 82.6¢ | $207.57 | $163.35 | -$44.22 | 52% 6908-6279 (13187) |
 RN1CTR | Texansavg 49¢ | $181.3 | $129.5 | -$51.8 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
Invested
$2,979.15
Value
$2.0K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
58%
6085-4492 (10577)
Invested
$360
Value
$755
PnL
+$395
Record
56%
2060-1620 (3680)
Invested
$207.57
Value
$163.35
PnL
-$44.22
Record
52%
6908-6279 (13187)
RN1CTRInvested
$181.3
Value
$129.5
PnL
-$51.8
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.