Spread: Texans (-5.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (43%) · Giants at 63¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Giants
7
Giants 43%
$1.3K
-$445.17
52.9¢ → 63¢
+19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralGiants at 63%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Giantsavg 52¢ | $1.3K | $809.03 | -$446.77 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Giantsavg 59¢ | $224.2 | $222.3 | -$1.9 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Texansavg 41.4¢ | $161.16 | $122.65 | -$38.52 | 52% 6814-6216 (13030) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Texansavg 43.6¢ | $53.37 | $81.35 | +$27.98 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Texansavg 49¢ | $58.33 | $79.16 | +$20.83 | 59% 13975-9717 (23692) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Giantsavg 52¢ | $21.06 | $13.57 | -$7.49 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Texansavg 49¢ | $1.96 | $2.66 | +$0.7 | 51% 4110-3965 (8075) |
RN1Invested
$1,255.8
Value
$809.03
PnL
-$446.77
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$224.2
Value
$222.3
PnL
-$1.9
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
Invested
$161.16
Value
$122.65
PnL
-$38.52
Record
52%
6814-6216 (13030)
Invested
$53.37
Value
$81.35
PnL
+$27.98
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$58.33
Value
$79.16
PnL
+$20.83
Record
59%
13975-9717 (23692)
Invested
$21.06
Value
$13.57
PnL
-$7.49
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$2.66
PnL
+$0.7
Record
51%
4110-3965 (8075)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.