Spread: Texans (-4.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (83%) · Giants at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Giants
6
Giants 83%
$15.8K
$3.1K
56.9¢ → 99.5¢
+75% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralGiants at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Giantsavg 50.3¢ | $3.2K | $5.9K | +$1.3K | 55% 3039-2470 (5509) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Giantsavg 62.6¢ | $2.8K | $4.2K | +$1.4K | 55% 12316-10142 (22458) |
 RN1 | Giantsavg 59.6¢ | $3.7K | $4.0K | +$345.49 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
JU justaluckydude | Giantsavg 59.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$66.31 | 52% 6908-6279 (13187) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Giantsavg 60¢ | $8.45 | $9.86 | +$1.41 | 56% 2060-1620 (3680) |
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR<$100 | Texansavg 42¢ | $25.63 | $9.44 | -$16.19 | 51% 495-473 (968) |
Invested
$3,181.14
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
55%
3039-2470 (5509)
Invested
$2,835.24
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
55%
12316-10142 (22458)
RN1Invested
$3,688.81
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$345.49
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
Invested
$1,599.81
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$66.31
Record
52%
6908-6279 (13187)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$9.86
PnL
+$1.41
Record
56%
2060-1620 (3680)
Invested
$25.63
Value
$9.44
PnL
-$16.19
Record
51%
495-473 (968)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.