Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texans, while the market favors Giants (52%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Texans (-3.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (75%) · Texans at 49¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Texans49¢Giants51¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 75%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$274.01

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 48.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Giants 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Texans49%

Giants52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,358

Combined PnL+$196.49

Giants2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,150

Combined PnL+$77.52

Texans — 75%Giants — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR	Texansavg 53¢	$981.48	$1.3K	+$333.33	53% 126-110 (236)
TA takeormake	Giantsavg 47.8¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$77.24	55% 3020-2458 (5478)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Texansavg 46.8¢	$575.97	$504.88	-$71.09	52% 6814-6216 (13030)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Texansavg 57.5¢	$508.53	$383.9	-$124.63	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Texansavg 49.1¢	$137.68	$198.94	+$61.26	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100	Texansavg 51¢	$98.07	$92.3	-$5.77	49% 305-317 (622)
RN1<$100	Giantsavg 52¢	$28.2	$28.47	+$0.28	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Texansavg 54¢	$10.8	$14.2	+$3.4	55% 12164-10045 (22209)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR

Texans

Invested

$981.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$333.33

Record

53%

126-110 (236)

takeormake

Giants

Invested

$1,006.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$77.24

Record

55%

3020-2458 (5478)

justaluckydudeCTR

Texans

Invested

$575.97

Value

$504.88

PnL

-$71.09

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

UpTheBluesCTR

Texans

Invested

$508.53

Value

$383.9

PnL

-$124.63

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Texans

Invested

$137.68

Value

$198.94

PnL

+$61.26

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$98.07

Value

$92.3

PnL

-$5.77

Record

49%

305-317 (622)

RN1<$100

Giants

Invested

$28.2

Value

$28.47

PnL

+$0.28

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$10.8

Value

$14.2

PnL

+$3.4

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Giants 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.