Spread: Texans (-2.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (67%) · Giants at 99¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Texans1¢Giants99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giants

Consensus Traders

Giants 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

-$47.23

Smart Money Entry

41.5¢ → 99¢

+138% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Texans1%

Giants99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares7,806

Combined PnL-$166.29

Texans2 traders

Total Value$563.01

Total Shares873

Combined PnL+$119.06

Giants — 67%Texans — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Texansavg 44.2¢	$6.5K	$6.4K	-$90.25	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 44.7¢	$2.3K	$3.7K	+$1.4K
└ Texans leg	Texansavg 44.2¢	$4.2K	$2.7K	$-1.5K
UP UpTheBlues	Giantsavg 37.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$46.77	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
HO HomeRunHazard	Giantsavg 46.5¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$237.71	55% 12316-10142 (22458)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Texansavg 45.5¢	$436.57	$557.16	+$120.59	52% 6908-6279 (13187)
AN Anon455	Giantsavg 39¢	$270.86	$302.11	+$31.25	56% 2060-1620 (3680)
DE degenm<$100	Giantsavg 48¢	$35.26	$28.66	-$6.6	58% 990-708 (1698)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Texansavg 41¢	$7.38	$5.85	-$1.53	55% 3039-2470 (5509)

RN1ARB<$100

Texans

Invested

$6,535.32

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$90.25

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

Both legs:

Giants$2,337.9344.7¢+$1.4K

Texans$4,197.3944.2¢$-1.5K

UpTheBlues

Giants

Invested

$1,461.59

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$46.77

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

HomeRunHazard

Giants

Invested

$1,474.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$237.71

Record

55%

12316-10142 (22458)

justaluckydudeCTR

Texans

Invested

$436.57

Value

$557.16

PnL

+$120.59

Record

52%

6908-6279 (13187)

Anon455

Giants

Invested

$270.86

Value

$302.11

PnL

+$31.25

Record

56%

2060-1620 (3680)

degenm<$100

Giants

Invested

$35.26

Value

$28.66

PnL

-$6.6

Record

58%

990-708 (1698)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$7.38

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$1.53

Record

55%

3039-2470 (5509)

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giants wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.