Spread: Texans (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (57%) · Giants at 99¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Giants
7
Giants 57%
1 arb excluded
$16.0K
$123.27
44.9¢ → 99¢
+120% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralGiants at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Giantsavg 46.2¢ | $6.1K | $8.7K | -$352.18 | 55% 3039-2470 (5509) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Texansavg 53.6¢ | $7.7K | $5.5K | $-2.2K | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
| └ Texans leg | Texansavg 53.6¢ | $6.8K | $3.7K | $-3.1K | |
| └ Giants leg | Giantsavg 37¢ | $909.83 | $1.7K | +$823.76 | |
JU justaluckydude | Giantsavg 39.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.7K | +$432.68 | 52% 6908-6279 (13187) |
UP UpTheBlues | Giantsavg 25.1¢ | $59.45 | $107.83 | +$48.39 | 68% 31590-15191 (46781) |
AV averagejoetradersCTR<$100 | Texansavg 60¢ | $16.36 | $14.63 | -$1.74 | 56% 475-367 (842) |
AD adururuCTR<$100 | Texansavg 66¢ | $8.53 | $6.45 | -$2.08 | 54% 305-257 (562) |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100 | Texansavg 66¢ | $8.23 | $6.22 | -$2 | 52% 229-210 (439) |
SH shoemanhere<$100 | Giantsavg 46¢ | $5.98 | $6.18 | +$0.19 | 63% 4859-2904 (7763) |
Invested
$6,058.46
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$352.18
Record
55%
3039-2470 (5509)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$7,704.36
Value
$5.5K
PnL
$-2.2K
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,268.32
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$432.68
Record
52%
6908-6279 (13187)
Invested
$59.45
Value
$107.83
PnL
+$48.39
Record
68%
31590-15191 (46781)
Invested
$16.36
Value
$14.63
PnL
-$1.74
Record
56%
475-367 (842)
Invested
$8.53
Value
$6.45
PnL
-$2.08
Record
54%
305-257 (562)
Invested
$8.23
Value
$6.22
PnL
-$2
Record
52%
229-210 (439)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$6.18
PnL
+$0.19
Record
63%
4859-2904 (7763)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.