Spread: Texans (-17.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (83%) · Giants at 97¢ · $26K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Giants
6
Giants 83%
$26.3K
$2.5K
72.7¢ → 96.5¢
+33% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralGiants at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Giantsavg 72.7¢ | $16.0K | $13.7K | +$2.6K | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Giantsavg 73¢ | $7.7K | $7.4K | -$310 | 47% 2015-2254 (4269) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Texansavg 27¢ | $3.5K | $3.7K | +$130.4 | 61% 4558-2887 (7445) |
AN Anon455 | Giantsavg 70¢ | $700 | $910 | +$120 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Giantsavg 73¢ | $730 | $700 | -$30 | 57% 4484-3315 (7799) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Giantsavg 72¢ | $16.82 | $16.35 | -$0.47 | 52% 5390-5012 (10402) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$15,951.43
Value
$13.7K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$7,660
Value
$7.4K
PnL
-$310
Record
47%
2015-2254 (4269)
Invested
$3,520.8
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$130.4
Record
61%
4558-2887 (7445)
Invested
$700
Value
$910
PnL
+$120
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
Invested
$730
Value
$700
PnL
-$30
Record
57%
4484-3315 (7799)
Invested
$16.82
Value
$16.35
PnL
-$0.47
Record
52%
5390-5012 (10402)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.