Spread: Texans (-13.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (67%) · Giants at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Texans6¢Giants94¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giants

Consensus Traders

Giants 67%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$2.97

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 94¢

+59% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Texans6%

Giants94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,194

Combined PnL+$2.3

Texans2 traders

Total Value$65.69

Total Shares160

Combined PnL+$0.67

Giants — 67%Texans — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Giantsavg 59¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$0	54% 872-742 (1614)
UP UpTheBlues	Giantsavg 58¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$28.34	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
RN1<$100	Giantsavg 72¢	$80.7	$66.13	-$14.57	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Texansavg 41¢	$38.22	$38.22	-$0	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Texansavg 40¢	$26.8	$27.47	+$0.67	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Giantsavg 90¢	$33.3	$21.83	-$11.47	52% 6814-6216 (13030)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Giants

Invested

$1,893.96

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

872-742 (1614)

UpTheBlues

Giants

Invested

$1,644.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$28.34

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

RN1<$100

Giants

Invested

$80.7

Value

$66.13

PnL

-$14.57

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Anon455CTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$38.22

Value

$38.22

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$26.8

Value

$27.47

PnL

+$0.67

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

justaluckydude<$100

Giants

Invested

$33.3

Value

$21.83

PnL

-$11.47

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giants wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.