Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Texans, while the market favors Giants (52%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Texans (-10.5)
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (50%) · Texans at 48¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Texans
2
Texans 50%
$14.3K
-$33.89
Research grade
NeutralTexans at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Giants 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BT BTCGambler247CTR | Texansavg 49¢ | $19.0K | $9.2K | -$95 | 48% 215-235 (450) |
 VeryLucky888 | Giantsavg 51¢ | $6.5K | $5.1K | +$61.11 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.