Giants vs. Texans

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (46%) · Texans at 81¢ · $58K held · ended Oct 25

Giants19¢Texans81¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 46%

Total Value

$58.4K

Combined PnL

$224.69

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 81¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Giants19%

Texans81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans6 traders

Total Value$46.6K

Total Shares57,869

Combined PnL-$230.7

Giants7 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares59,050

Combined PnL+$455.4

Texans — 46%Giants — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

94h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexans 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpTexans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGiants 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961	Texansavg 81¢	$24.3K	$24.0K	-$149.97	48% 207-228 (435)
JustADonk	Texansavg 80¢	$17.4K	$17.4K	+$0	55% 824-673 (1497)
EdZacharyCTR	Giantsavg 19¢	$8.8K	$9.3K	+$465.28	45% 70-84 (154)
MY myxi	Texansavg 82.8¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$86.88	67% 266-129 (395)
AN Anon455	Texansavg 81¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$16.32	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
MA MastermoneyCTR	Giantsavg 20¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$0	47% 198-224 (422)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Texansavg 82¢	$410	$400	-$10	51% 985-937 (1922)
AA aaabbbCTR	Giantsavg 20¢	$300	$285	-$7.5	50% 433-429 (862)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Giantsavg 20¢	$178	$178	-$0	61% 4553-2878 (7431)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Giantsavg 20¢	$107.09	$101.74	-$2.68	66% 2855-1500 (4355)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Texansavg 80.1¢	$96.86	$96.68	-$0.18	59% 13959-9681 (23640)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Giantsavg 19.5¢	$9.49	$9.72	+$0.22	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Giantsavg 19¢	$1.33	$1.4	+$0.07	55% 3016-2456 (5472)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961

Texans

Invested

$24,299.99

Value

$24.0K

PnL

-$149.97

Record

48%

207-228 (435)

JustADonk

Texans

Invested

$17,355.26

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

824-673 (1497)

EdZacharyCTR

Giants

Invested

$8,840.29

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$465.28

Record

45%

70-84 (154)

myxi

Texans

Invested

$2,579.68

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$86.88

Record

67%

266-129 (395)

Anon455

Texans

Invested

$2,205.14

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$16.32

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

MastermoneyCTR

Giants

Invested

$1,908.29

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

198-224 (422)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Texans

Invested

$410

Value

$400

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

985-937 (1922)

aaabbbCTR

Giants

Invested

$300

Value

$285

PnL

-$7.5

Record

50%

433-429 (862)

Forecastication2CTR

Giants

Invested

$178

Value

$178

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

4553-2878 (7431)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Giants

Invested

$107.09

Value

$101.74

PnL

-$2.68

Record

66%

2855-1500 (4355)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Texans

Invested

$96.86

Value

$96.68

PnL

-$0.18

Record

59%

13959-9681 (23640)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$9.49

Value

$9.72

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

3016-2456 (5472)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

94h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexans 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpTexans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGiants 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.