Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (63%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Dolphins vs. Jets: O/U 50.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 38¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
$-1.1K
44.5¢ → 37.5¢
-16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 38%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$0.18 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 38.9¢ | $688.03 | $1.4K | +$760.5 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $1.2K | $427.68 | -$760.32 | |
PR primmCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $360 | -$640 | 46% 987-1174 (2161) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 20.9¢ | $238.55 | $205.2 | -$33.35 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 60¢ | $617.41 | $190.79 | -$426.62 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $25.48 | $42.64 | +$17.16 | 55% 3020-2458 (5478) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Overavg 45.7¢ | $42.04 | $40.02 | -$2.02 | 52% 6814-6216 (13030) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Underavg 79¢ | $7.52 | $7.81 | +$0.29 | 55% 9094-7490 (16584) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,876.03
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$0.18
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,000
Value
$360
PnL
-$640
Record
46%
987-1174 (2161)
Invested
$238.55
Value
$205.2
PnL
-$33.35
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$617.41
Value
$190.79
PnL
-$426.62
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
Invested
$25.48
Value
$42.64
PnL
+$17.16
Record
55%
3020-2458 (5478)
Invested
$42.04
Value
$40.02
PnL
-$2.02
Record
52%
6814-6216 (13030)
Invested
$7.52
Value
$7.81
PnL
+$0.29
Record
55%
9094-7490 (16584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.