Dolphins vs. Jets: O/U 40.5

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 64¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Over64¢Under36¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$120.84

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 64¢

+36% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$755.09

Total Shares1,180

Combined PnL+$15.56

Under1 trader

Total Value$180.4

Total Shares501

Combined PnL-$136.4

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ComingBack	Overavg 47¢	$500	$680.85	-$5.32	62% 3695-2244 (5939)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Underavg 43.7¢	$219.09	$180.4	-$136.4	53% 1882-1643 (3525)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 46¢	$53.36	$74.24	+$20.88	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$60.21	$69.41	+$9.2	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$59.36	$40.32	+$0.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$20.45	$29.09	+$8.64

ComingBack

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$680.85

PnL

-$5.32

Record

62%

3695-2244 (5939)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Under

Invested

$219.09

Value

$180.4

PnL

-$136.4

Record

53%

1882-1643 (3525)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$53.36

Value

$74.24

PnL

+$20.88

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$60.21

Value

$69.41

PnL

+$9.2

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

Both legs:

Under$59.3653¢+$0.56

Over$20.4545¢+$8.64

Research grade

NeutralOver at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.