Spread: Jets (-5.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (50%) · Dolphins at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Dolphins
6
Dolphins 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$281.93
67.4¢ → 90.5¢
+34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDolphins at 91%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Dolphinsavg 68¢ | $1.7K | $1.4K | -$268.4 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
AN Anon455CTR | Jetsavg 43.1¢ | $650 | $648.56 | -$8.98 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Jetsavg 43¢ | $221.08 | $220.95 | -$0.13 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Jetsavg 44¢ | $194.42 | $190 | -$4.42 | 68% 3522-1694 (5216) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Dolphinsavg 56¢ | $69.72 | $70.46 | +$0.74 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
| └ Dolphins leg | Dolphinsavg 56¢ | $38.64 | $38.64 | +$0 | |
| └ Jets leg | Jetsavg 42¢ | $31.08 | $31.82 | +$0.74 | |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Dolphinsavg 56¢ | $50.26 | $50.26 | +$0 | 66% 2856-1504 (4360) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Dolphinsavg 56¢ | $18.96 | $18.96 | -$0 | 56% 6385-5115 (11500) |
RN1Invested
$1,659.21
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$268.4
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$650
Value
$648.56
PnL
-$8.98
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$221.08
Value
$220.95
PnL
-$0.13
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$194.42
Value
$190
PnL
-$4.42
Record
68%
3522-1694 (5216)
Invested
$69.72
Value
$70.46
PnL
+$0.74
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.26
Value
$50.26
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
2856-1504 (4360)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$18.96
Value
$18.96
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
6385-5115 (11500)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.