Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Dolphins (67%). 7 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Jets (-3.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (50%) · Jets at 34¢ · $43K held · ended Oct 25

Jets34¢Dolphins66¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 50%

Total Value

$43.5K

Combined PnL

-$124.67

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 33.5¢

-34% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Dolphins 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jets34%

Dolphins67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins7 traders

Total Value$18.7K

Total Shares36,639

Combined PnL-$135.18

Jets7 traders

Total Value$24.8K

Total Shares49,172

Combined PnL+$10.5

Dolphins — 50%Jets — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Dolphins) and the top 1000 (5 on Jets) disagree here.

whaleJets 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpJets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WO wollao	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$15.0K	$14.8K	-$150	— 4-3 (7)
BO Bozos14CTR	Jetsavg 50¢	$9.4K	$9.5K	+$94.05	50% 139-138 (277)
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Jetsavg 50¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$60	57% 37-28 (65)
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR	Jetsavg 52¢	$10.0K	$5.0K	-$150	48% 207-228 (435)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Jetsavg 50.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0	52% 129-119 (248)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Jetsavg 50.3¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$8.88	50% 1014-1005 (2019)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Dolphinsavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10.71	54% 540-460 (1000)
RN1	Dolphinsavg 66¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$11.49	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
NA NatoAlfista	Dolphinsavg 48¢	$247.92	$258.25	-$2.58	66% 2855-1500 (4355)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Jetsavg 51¢	$255	$252.5	-$2.5	51% 985-937 (1922)
TA takeormake	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$205.02	$202.97	-$2.05	55% 3016-2456 (5472)
SH shovelingdigging	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$200	$198	-$2	57% 246-188 (434)
TimeTraveler<$100	Dolphinsavg 50¢	$75	$74.25	-$0.75	42% 1892-2663 (4555)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Jetsavg 50¢	$7.5	$7.58	+$0.08	75% 2665-901 (3566)

wollao

Dolphins

Invested

$15,000

Value

$14.8K

PnL

-$150

Record

—

4-3 (7)

Bozos14CTR

Jets

Invested

$9,405

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$94.05

Record

50%

139-138 (277)

lightotunnel35CTR

Jets

Invested

$6,000

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$60

Record

57%

37-28 (65)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR

Jets

Invested

$10,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$150

Record

48%

207-228 (435)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Jets

Invested

$2,020

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

129-119 (248)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Jets

Invested

$1,934.08

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$8.88

Record

50%

1014-1005 (2019)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Dolphins

Invested

$1,528.24

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10.71

Record

54%

540-460 (1000)

RN1

Dolphins

Invested

$1,517.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$11.49

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

NatoAlfista

Dolphins

Invested

$247.92

Value

$258.25

PnL

-$2.58

Record

66%

2855-1500 (4355)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Jets

Invested

$255

Value

$252.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

985-937 (1922)

takeormake

Dolphins

Invested

$205.02

Value

$202.97

PnL

-$2.05

Record

55%

3016-2456 (5472)

shovelingdigging

Dolphins

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

57%

246-188 (434)

TimeTraveler<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$75

Value

$74.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

42%

1892-2663 (4555)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

75%

2665-901 (3566)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Dolphins 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Dolphins) and the top 1000 (5 on Jets) disagree here.

whaleJets 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpJets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.