Spread: Jets (-1.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (29%) · Dolphins at 76¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Dolphins
7
Dolphins 29%
$2.0K
-$134.09
50.9¢ → 75.5¢
+48% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDolphins at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Jetsavg 53¢ | $897.3 | $1.0K | +$142.8 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
 RN1 | Dolphinsavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $787.13 | -$262.38 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 19¢ | $84.17 | $73.1 | -$11.08 | 55% 3020-2458 (5478) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Dolphinsavg 91¢ | $45.5 | $42 | -$3.5 | 52% 6814-6216 (13030) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 63¢ | $16.72 | $16.59 | -$0.13 | 55% 9094-7490 (16584) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 62¢ | $3.1 | $3.13 | +$0.02 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Jetsavg 55¢ | $1.22 | $1.39 | +$0.17 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
Invested
$897.3
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$142.8
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
RN1Invested
$1,049.5
Value
$787.13
PnL
-$262.38
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$84.17
Value
$73.1
PnL
-$11.08
Record
55%
3020-2458 (5478)
Invested
$45.5
Value
$42
PnL
-$3.5
Record
52%
6814-6216 (13030)
Invested
$16.72
Value
$16.59
PnL
-$0.13
Record
55%
9094-7490 (16584)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$3.13
PnL
+$0.02
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.39
PnL
+$0.17
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.