Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Dolphins, while the market favors Jets (58%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Dolphins (-6.5)
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (100%) · Dolphins at 42¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Dolphins
2
Dolphins 100%
2 arb excluded
$7.3K
$-1.4K
51.9¢ → 42¢
-19% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDolphins at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Jetsavg 48¢ | $4.0K | $4.2K | +$169.27 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
| └ Jets leg | Jetsavg 48¢ | $2.5K | $3.0K | +$514.4 | |
| └ Dolphins leg | Dolphinsavg 54¢ | $1.6K | $1.2K | -$345.13 | |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Jetsavg 48.5¢ | $2.4K | $2.6K | +$270.86 | 52% 6908-6279 (13187) |
| └ Jets leg | Jetsavg 48.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$284.68 | |
| └ Dolphins leg | Dolphinsavg 42.6¢ | $915.3 | $901.48 | -$13.82 | |
 NooseracCTR | Dolphinsavg 52¢ | $1.9K | $484.65 | $-1.4K | 52% 5309-4883 (10192) |
PR primmCTR<$100 | Dolphinsavg 26¢ | $3.17 | $5.12 | +$1.95 | 46% 991-1179 (2170) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$4,020.07
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$169.27
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,366.56
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$270.86
Record
52%
6908-6279 (13187)
Both legs:
NooseracCTRInvested
$1,866.8
Value
$484.65
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
52%
5309-4883 (10192)
Invested
$3.17
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$1.95
Record
46%
991-1179 (2170)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.