Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (80%) · Jets at 79¢ · $23K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Jets
5
Jets 80%
$22.6K
-$229.79
79.6¢ → 78.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJets at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Jetsavg 79.5¢ | $13.6K | $13.4K | -$168.03 | 55% 12111-9992 (22103) |
 VeryLucky888 | Jetsavg 80¢ | $8.0K | $7.9K | -$50 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
PL pltrkr111 | Jetsavg 79¢ | $1,000 | $993.67 | -$6.33 | 55% 672-557 (1229) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Dolphinsavg 21¢ | $192.99 | $192.99 | -$4.59 | 61% 4513-2865 (7378) |
 0xheavy888 | Jetsavg 79¢ | $132.72 | $131.88 | -$0.84 | 56% 6353-5083 (11436) |
Invested
$13,556.66
Value
$13.4K
PnL
-$168.03
Record
55%
12111-9992 (22103)
VeryLucky888Invested
$8,000
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$50
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$993.67
PnL
-$6.33
Record
55%
672-557 (1229)
Invested
$192.99
Value
$192.99
PnL
-$4.59
Record
61%
4513-2865 (7378)
0xheavy888Invested
$132.72
Value
$131.88
PnL
-$0.84
Record
56%
6353-5083 (11436)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.