Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Dolphins (68%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (80%) · Jets at 33¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Jets
5
Jets 80%
1 arb excluded
$6.2K
$243.52
48.4¢ → 32.5¢
-33% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJets at 33%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Dolphins 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Dolphinsavg 46.1¢ | $1.4K | $2.0K | +$559.96 | 52% 6814-6216 (13030) |
| └ Dolphins leg | Dolphinsavg 46.1¢ | $948.6 | $1.6K | +$604.44 | |
| └ Jets leg | Jetsavg 27¢ | $472.25 | $427.77 | -$44.48 | |
 RN1CTR | Jetsavg 41¢ | $1.0K | $1.8K | +$784.61 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Jetsavg 60.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$251.77 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
UP UpTheBlues | Dolphinsavg 58.8¢ | $1.5K | $714.36 | -$785.02 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Jetsavg 27¢ | $107.19 | $97.27 | -$9.92 | 55% 3020-2458 (5478) |
SH shoemanhereCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 53¢ | $5.8 | $7.88 | +$2.08 | 63% 4742-2814 (7556) |
Invested
$1,420.85
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$559.96
Record
52%
6814-6216 (13030)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$1,037.71
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$784.61
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$1,338.81
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$251.77
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
Invested
$1,499.38
Value
$714.36
PnL
-$785.02
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$107.19
Value
$97.27
PnL
-$9.92
Record
55%
3020-2458 (5478)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$7.88
PnL
+$2.08
Record
63%
4742-2814 (7556)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.