Dolphins vs. Jets
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (100%) · Jets at 66¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Jets
5
Jets 100%
$4.1K
-$50.96
66¢ → 65.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralJets at 66%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MaktMan | Jetsavg 66¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$40 | 63% 17-10 (27) |
LI lissartter | Jetsavg 66¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$10 | 44% 4851-6181 (11032) |
 VeryLucky888 | Jetsavg 66¢ | $118.87 | $85.69 | +$0.05 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Jetsavg 66¢ | $43.03 | $42.38 | -$0.65 | 53% 1866-1631 (3497) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Jetsavg 66¢ | $23.76 | $23.4 | -$0.36 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
Invested
$2,640
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$40
Record
63%
17-10 (27)
Invested
$1,320
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$10
Record
44%
4851-6181 (11032)
VeryLucky888Invested
$118.87
Value
$85.69
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$43.03
Value
$42.38
PnL
-$0.65
Record
53%
1866-1631 (3497)
Invested
$23.76
Value
$23.4
PnL
-$0.36
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.