Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (58%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Rams vs. Raiders: O/U 56.5
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 42¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
2
Under 100%
3 arb excluded
$7.3K
$89.01
62.2¢ → 42¢
-32% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 48.2¢ | $3.4K | $2.8K | -$619.94 | 55% 12469-10246 (22715) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48.2¢ | $2.7K | $2.0K | -$723.01 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55.6¢ | $640.57 | $743.64 | +$103.07 | |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Overavg 40.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$6.65 | 52% 6989-6369 (13358) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 40.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$233.59 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.5¢ | $599.99 | $840.23 | +$240.24 | |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Underavg 54.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$69.06 | 56% 2094-1661 (3755) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.6¢ | $847.3 | $1.0K | +$154.06 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44¢ | $440 | $355 | -$85 | |
SA SadSquid54333CTR | Underavg 62¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$90 | 63% 130-76 (206) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $33.99 | $33 | -$0.99 | 61% 4723-2962 (7685) |
Invested
$3,383.19
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$619.94
Record
55%
12469-10246 (22715)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,886.63
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$6.65
Record
52%
6989-6369 (13358)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,287.3
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$69.06
Record
56%
2094-1661 (3755)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,200
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$90
Record
63%
130-76 (206)
Invested
$33.99
Value
$33
PnL
-$0.99
Record
61%
4723-2962 (7685)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.