Rams vs. Raiders: O/U 46.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 67¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 25

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

-$508.54

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 66.5¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares13,033

Combined PnL-$308.51

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares9,618

Combined PnL-$200.03

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 59.1¢	$5.9K	$5.6K	-$254.76	55% 12364-10168 (22532)
ET ethanazCTR	Underavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$125.62	52% 550-512 (1062)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 61¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$45	51% 1023-977 (2000)
0xd3B697c398136430AA46b5C2C62ec4166319Fa47-1770489446062CTR	Underavg 42¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$103.21	35% 116-218 (334)
GO goldmynameCTR	Underavg 41¢	$472.55	$501.36	+$28.81	67% 87-43 (130)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 61.8¢	$408.83	$366.79	-$42.04	52% 6930-6299 (13229)
└ Over leg	Overavg 61.8¢	$205.23	$187.57	-$17.66
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.4¢	$203.6	$179.22	-$24.38
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 39¢	$101.97	$107.07	+$5.1	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$63.57	$70.91	+$7.34
└ Over leg	Overavg 60¢	$38.4	$36.16	-$2.24
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 65¢	$66.95	$58.19	-$8.76	55% 3052-2477 (5529)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$5,877.17

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$254.76

Record

55%

12364-10168 (22532)

ethanazCTR

Under

Invested

$2,311.5

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$125.62

Record

52%

550-512 (1062)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$1,830

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$45

Record

51%

1023-977 (2000)

0xd3B697c398136430AA46b5C2C62ec4166319Fa47-1770489446062CTR

Under

Invested

$1,445

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$103.21

Record

35%

116-218 (334)

goldmynameCTR

Under

Invested

$472.55

Value

$501.36

PnL

+$28.81

Record

67%

87-43 (130)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$408.83

Value

$366.79

PnL

-$42.04

Record

52%

6930-6299 (13229)

Both legs:

Over$205.2361.8¢-$17.66

Under$203.649.4¢-$24.38

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$101.97

Value

$107.07

PnL

+$5.1

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

Both legs:

Invested

$66.95

Value

$58.19

PnL

-$8.76

Record

55%

3052-2477 (5529)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.