Spread: Raiders (-3.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (83%) · Rams at 75¢ · $28K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Rams
6
Rams 83%
$28.0K
-$363.01
75.2¢ → 74.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralRams at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Ramsavg 75.9¢ | $14.1K | $13.9K | -$258.58 | 55% 12111-9992 (22103) |
 VeryLucky888 | Ramsavg 74.7¢ | $11.2K | $11.1K | -$100 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Ramsavg 74¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$0 | 47% 1968-2204 (4172) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Ramsavg 75¢ | $750 | $740 | -$15 | 69% 4259-1919 (6178) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Raidersavg 26¢ | $549.64 | $549.64 | +$10.57 | 61% 4513-2865 (7378) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Ramsavg 74¢ | $22.2 | $22.2 | +$0 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
Invested
$14,131.34
Value
$13.9K
PnL
-$258.58
Record
55%
12111-9992 (22103)
VeryLucky888Invested
$11,200
Value
$11.1K
PnL
-$100
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$1,704.6
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1968-2204 (4172)
Invested
$750
Value
$740
PnL
-$15
Record
69%
4259-1919 (6178)
Invested
$549.64
Value
$549.64
PnL
+$10.57
Record
61%
4513-2865 (7378)
Invested
$22.2
Value
$22.2
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.