Spread: Rams (-9.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (75%) · Rams at 91¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Rams
4
Rams 75%
1 arb excluded
$10.9K
$2.6K
54.6¢ → 91¢
+67% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralRams at 91%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Ramsavg 43¢ | $2.5K | $5.0K | +$2.5K | 55% 3072-2497 (5569) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | Ramsavg 69.7¢ | $3.1K | $3.9K | +$811.54 | 54% 1067-923 (1990) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Ramsavg 75.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$76.32 | 52% 6989-6369 (13358) |
| └ Rams leg | Ramsavg 75.9¢ | $928.26 | $794.53 | -$133.74 | |
| └ Raiders leg | Raidersavg 32¢ | $612.48 | $669.9 | +$57.42 | |
 RN1CTR | Raidersavg 26.1¢ | $1.3K | $586.34 | -$689.63 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Ramsavg 56¢ | $14.34 | $22.54 | +$8.2 | 56% 2094-1661 (3755) |
Invested
$2,498.73
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
55%
3072-2497 (5569)
Invested
$3,092.14
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$811.54
Record
54%
1067-923 (1990)
Invested
$1,540.74
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$76.32
Record
52%
6989-6369 (13358)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$1,275.97
Value
$586.34
PnL
-$689.63
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Invested
$14.34
Value
$22.54
PnL
+$8.2
Record
56%
2094-1661 (3755)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.