Spread: Rams (-7.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (57%) · Rams at 93¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 25

Rams93¢Raiders7¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 57%

Total Value

$19.2K

Combined PnL

$3.8K

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 93¢

+39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rams93%

Raiders7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams4 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares16,896

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Raiders3 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares14,250

Combined PnL+$486.68

Rams — 57%Raiders — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raiders) and the top 1000 (4 on Rams) disagree here.

whaleRams 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRams 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rams 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Ramsavg 66¢	$9.1K	$13.1K	+$3.3K	55% 3072-2497 (5569)
RN1CTR	Raidersavg 21.7¢	$2.7K	$3.3K	+$611.37	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Ramsavg 71¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$10.5	54% 1067-923 (1990)
JU justaluckydude	Ramsavg 81.9¢	$622.35	$543.4	-$78.95	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
AN Anon455CTR	Raidersavg 26.5¢	$530	$540	+$10	56% 2094-1661 (3755)
StudyPrediction	Ramsavg 31¢	$63.35	$185.96	+$122.61	51% 3677-3531 (7208)
latvian.demonCTR	Raidersavg 49¢	$150	$15.31	-$134.69	54% 559-485 (1044)

takeormake

Rams

Invested

$9,128.77

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

55%

3072-2497 (5569)

RN1CTR

Raiders

Invested

$2,694.45

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$611.37

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Rams

Invested

$1,490.29

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$10.5

Record

54%

1067-923 (1990)

justaluckydude

Rams

Invested

$622.35

Value

$543.4

PnL

-$78.95

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

Anon455CTR

Raiders

Invested

$530

Value

$540

PnL

+$10

Record

56%

2094-1661 (3755)

StudyPrediction

Rams

Invested

$63.35

Value

$185.96

PnL

+$122.61

Record

51%

3677-3531 (7208)

latvian.demonCTR

Raiders

Invested

$150

Value

$15.31

PnL

-$134.69

Record

54%

559-485 (1044)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raiders) and the top 1000 (4 on Rams) disagree here.

whaleRams 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRams 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rams 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.