Spread: Rams (-6.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (38%) · Rams at 67¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25

Rams67¢Raiders33¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 38%

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$785.13

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 67¢

+52% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rams67%

Raiders33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams3 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares14,510

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Raiders5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,164

Combined PnL-$569.15

Rams — 38%Raiders — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Ramsavg 41.6¢	$6.1K	$7.8K	+$1.7K	55% 12364-10168 (22532)
ME metski29CTR	Raidersavg 63¢	$5.3K	$4.7K	-$543.42	45% 245-305 (550)
TA takeormake	Ramsavg 53¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$301.82	55% 3052-2477 (5529)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Raidersavg 61¢	$385.05	$356.65	-$28.41	67% 3553-1713 (5266)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Raidersavg 62¢	$51.46	$52.29	+$0.83	61% 4694-2945 (7639)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Raidersavg 54.5¢	$46.3	$48.03	+$1.73	52% 6930-6299 (13229)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Ramsavg 37¢	$32.19	$37.84	+$5.65	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
RN1CTR<$100	Raidersavg 53¢	$3.85	$3.98	+$0.12	55% 44235-36462 (80697)

HomeRunHazard

Rams

Invested

$6,143.77

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

55%

12364-10168 (22532)

metski29CTR

Raiders

Invested

$5,267

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$543.42

Record

45%

245-305 (550)

takeormake

Rams

Invested

$1,685.83

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$301.82

Record

55%

3052-2477 (5529)

SunlineTickerCTR

Raiders

Invested

$385.05

Value

$356.65

PnL

-$28.41

Record

67%

3553-1713 (5266)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$51.46

Value

$52.29

PnL

+$0.83

Record

61%

4694-2945 (7639)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$46.3

Value

$48.03

PnL

+$1.73

Record

52%

6930-6299 (13229)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Rams

Invested

$32.19

Value

$37.84

PnL

+$5.65

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

RN1CTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.12

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.