Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Raiders, while the market favors Rams (96%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Rams (-5.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (100%) · Raiders at 4.3¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Raiders
5
Raiders 100%
$3.8K
$-2.3K
58.5¢ → 4.3¢
-93% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaiders at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Rams 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Raidersavg 58.7¢ | $2.3K | $1.7K | -$580.24 | 67% 3569-1722 (5291) |
ET ethanazCTR | Raidersavg 59¢ | $2.0K | $1.5K | -$515.61 | 52% 553-515 (1068) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Raidersavg 58¢ | $788.8 | $459.97 | -$167.81 | 58% 32399-23548 (55947) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Raidersavg 57.5¢ | $1.1K | $113.3 | -$972.93 | 52% 6989-6369 (13358) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Raidersavg 44¢ | $22.33 | $2.16 | -$19.28 | 49% 3180-3341 (6521) |
Invested
$2,313.84
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$580.24
Record
67%
3569-1722 (5291)
Invested
$2,028.07
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$515.61
Record
52%
553-515 (1068)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$788.8
Value
$459.97
PnL
-$167.81
Record
58%
32399-23548 (55947)
Invested
$1,086.23
Value
$113.3
PnL
-$972.93
Record
52%
6989-6369 (13358)
Invested
$22.33
Value
$2.16
PnL
-$19.28
Record
49%
3180-3341 (6521)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.