Spread: Rams (-3.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (40%) · Raiders at 54¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Raiders
5
Raiders 40%
$6.0K
$163.07
52.8¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralRaiders at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Raidersavg 53¢ | $11.2K | $5.2K | +$147.92 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3 | Raidersavg 50¢ | $400 | $428 | +$28 | 44% 349-440 (789) |
SL slimjoeCTR | Ramsavg 49¢ | $210.21 | $197.34 | -$10.73 | 52% 5321-4926 (10247) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Ramsavg 46¢ | $145.23 | $145.23 | +$0 | 51% 3538-3434 (6972) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Ramsavg 49.7¢ | $32.7 | $30.24 | -$2.12 | 54% 13658-11474 (25132) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$11,244.31
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$147.92
Record
58%
31334-22653 (53987)
Invested
$400
Value
$428
PnL
+$28
Record
44%
349-440 (789)
Invested
$210.21
Value
$197.34
PnL
-$10.73
Record
52%
5321-4926 (10247)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$145.23
Value
$145.23
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3538-3434 (6972)
Invested
$32.7
Value
$30.24
PnL
-$2.12
Record
54%
13658-11474 (25132)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.