Spread: Rams (-13.5)

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (25%) · Rams at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Rams70¢Raiders30¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$185.65

Research grade

NeutralRams at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rams70%

Raiders31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders3 traders

Total Value$572.98

Total Shares784

Combined PnL+$217.44

Rams1 trader

Total Value$355.28

Total Shares1,615

Combined PnL-$31.79

Raiders — 75%Rams — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Raidersavg 18.4¢	$450.87	$727.68	+$276.81	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 18.4¢	$265.38	$540.69	+$275.31
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 62¢	$185.49	$186.99	+$1.5
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Raidersavg 38¢	$200	$410.53	+$210.53	63% 23068-13683 (36751)
unknowngambler	Ramsavg 24¢	$387.08	$355.28	-$31.79	58% 333-239 (572)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Raidersavg 54.6¢	$109.8	$154.53	+$44.73	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Raidersavg 79¢	$48.19	$7.93	-$37.82	54% 14164-11846 (26010)

RN1ARB<$100

Raiders

Invested

$450.87

Value

$727.68

PnL

+$276.81

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

Both legs:

Raiders$265.3818.4¢+$275.31

Rams$185.4962¢+$1.5

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Raiders

Invested

$200

Value

$410.53

PnL

+$210.53

Record

63%

23068-13683 (36751)

unknowngambler

Rams

Invested

$387.08

Value

$355.28

PnL

-$31.79

Record

58%

333-239 (572)

justaluckydudeCTR

Raiders

Invested

$109.8

Value

$154.53

PnL

+$44.73

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$48.19

Value

$7.93

PnL

-$37.82

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.