Spread: Rams (-10.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (50%) · Rams at 76¢ · $57K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Rams
4
Rams 50%
3 arb excluded
$56.7K
$3.5K
52.9¢ → 76¢
+44% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralRams at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Ramsavg 55.9¢ | $29.6K | $30.8K | +$1.2K | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
| └ Rams leg | Ramsavg 55.9¢ | $16.7K | $16.9K | +$186.88 | |
| └ Raiders leg | Raidersavg 40.4¢ | $12.9K | $13.9K | +$986.86 | |
TA takeormake | Ramsavg 52.9¢ | $10.5K | $14.1K | +$3.5K | 55% 3072-2497 (5569) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Raidersavg 43.5¢ | $10.0K | $10.3K | +$257.26 | 55% 12469-10246 (22715) |
| └ Raiders leg | Raidersavg 43.5¢ | $5.9K | $5.9K | -$2.78 | |
| └ Rams leg | Ramsavg 53.1¢ | $4.1K | $4.4K | +$260.04 | |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Raidersavg 40.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$101.16 | 56% 2094-1661 (3755) |
| └ Raiders leg | Raidersavg 40.5¢ | $810 | $870 | +$60 | |
| └ Rams leg | Ramsavg 49.3¢ | $282.41 | $323.57 | +$41.16 | |
NE neymar1CTR | Raidersavg 14.1¢ | $313.1 | $233.31 | -$79.79 | 33% 305-628 (933) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Raidersavg 46¢ | $151.35 | $172.74 | +$21.39 | 59% 14319-9905 (24224) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Ramsavg 56.2¢ | $11.24 | $11.1 | -$0.14 | 52% 6989-6369 (13358) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$29,628.08
Value
$30.8K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Both legs:
Invested
$10,546.57
Value
$14.1K
PnL
+$3.5K
Record
55%
3072-2497 (5569)
Invested
$10,014.4
Value
$10.3K
PnL
+$257.26
Record
55%
12469-10246 (22715)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,092.41
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$101.16
Record
56%
2094-1661 (3755)
Both legs:
Invested
$313.1
Value
$233.31
PnL
-$79.79
Record
33%
305-628 (933)
Invested
$151.35
Value
$172.74
PnL
+$21.39
Record
59%
14319-9905 (24224)
Invested
$11.24
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$0.14
Record
52%
6989-6369 (13358)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.