Chiefs vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 56¢ · $513 held · ends Oct 26

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$512.98

Combined PnL

-$0.38

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 56¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$366.24

Total Shares654

Combined PnL-$0.38

Over1 trader

Total Value$146.74

Total Shares334

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 56¢	$276.64	$276.64	+$0	67% 3569-1722 (5291)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Overavg 44¢	$146.74	$146.74	+$0	49% 3180-3341 (6521)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 56.9¢	$61.97	$61.04	-$0.38	61% 4723-2962 (7685)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 56¢	$28.56	$28.56	+$0	54% 14164-11846 (26010)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$276.64

Value

$276.64

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

3569-1722 (5291)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Over

Invested

$146.74

Value

$146.74

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$61.97

Value

$61.04

PnL

-$0.38

Record

61%

4723-2962 (7685)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$28.56

Value

$28.56

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.