Chiefs vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 52¢ · $72K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 75%
$71.6K
$1.3K
51¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+18 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoii | Overavg 51¢ | $68.7K | $70.1K | +$1.3K | 50% 1033-1030 (2063) |
 ComingBack | Overavg 51¢ | $500 | $509.8 | -$4.9 | 62% 3715-2255 (5970) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks | Overavg 51¢ | $357 | $364 | -$3.5 | 75% 2697-920 (3617) |
SU SunlineTicker | Overavg 52¢ | $216.84 | $216.84 | +$0 | 67% 3569-1722 (5291) |
NA NatoAlfista | Overavg 51¢ | $195.84 | $199.68 | +$3.84 | 49% 3180-3341 (6521) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $200 | $196 | -$2 | 54% 255-214 (469) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $53.04 | $54.08 | -$0.52 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
DI dip.CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $21.56 | $21.56 | +$0.22 | 48% 140-150 (290) |
Invested
$68,708
Value
$70.1K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
50%
1033-1030 (2063)
ComingBackInvested
$500
Value
$509.8
PnL
-$4.9
Record
62%
3715-2255 (5970)
Invested
$357
Value
$364
PnL
-$3.5
Record
75%
2697-920 (3617)
Invested
$216.84
Value
$216.84
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
3569-1722 (5291)
Invested
$195.84
Value
$199.68
PnL
+$3.84
Record
49%
3180-3341 (6521)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$200
Value
$196
PnL
-$2
Record
54%
255-214 (469)
Invested
$53.04
Value
$54.08
PnL
-$0.52
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
Invested
$21.56
Value
$21.56
PnL
+$0.22
Record
48%
140-150 (290)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.