Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (58%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Chiefs vs. Seahawks: O/U 40.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 42¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Over58¢Under42¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$12.53

Smart Money Entry

42.5¢ → 42¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over58%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,064

Combined PnL-$20

Over2 traders

Total Value$496.38

Total Shares856

Combined PnL+$7.47

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StudyPredictionCTR	Underavg 42.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$20	51% 3677-3531 (7208)
NA NatoAlfista	Overavg 57¢	$425.79	$433.26	+$7.47	49% 3180-3341 (6521)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Overavg 58¢	$63.12	$63.12	+$0	67% 3210-1586 (4796)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$26.88	$26.88	-$0	54% 14164-11846 (26010)

StudyPredictionCTR

Under

Invested

$1,700

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$20

Record

51%

3677-3531 (7208)

NatoAlfista

Over

Invested

$425.79

Value

$433.26

PnL

+$7.47

Record

49%

3180-3341 (6521)

Bagwell306<$100

Over

Invested

$63.12

Value

$63.12

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

3210-1586 (4796)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.88

Value

$26.88

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.