Chiefs vs. Seahawks: O/U 32.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$8.3K
-$858.06
57.1¢ → 98.5¢
+72% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 53.3¢ | $5.1K | $5.0K | -$143.63 | 55% 12853-10588 (23441) |
ET ethanazCTR | Overavg 48.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$48.7 | 51% 571-538 (1109) |
CH chiefphi | Underavg 58.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$211.42 | 56% 69-54 (123) |
0X 0xf125b242162c5096500f31f7f72b15830ef51edd | Underavg 98.5¢ | $904.77 | $350 | -$554.77 | 94% 79-5 (84) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 47.2¢ | $51.24 | $54.3 | +$3.06 | 69% 34652-15570 (50222) |
Invested
$5,145.17
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$143.63
Record
55%
12853-10588 (23441)
Invested
$1,574.6
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$48.7
Record
51%
571-538 (1109)
Invested
$1,460.88
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$211.42
Record
56%
69-54 (123)
Invested
$904.77
Value
$350
PnL
-$554.77
Record
94%
79-5 (84)
Invested
$51.24
Value
$54.3
PnL
+$3.06
Record
69%
34652-15570 (50222)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.