Chiefs vs. Seahawks: O/U 30.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 96¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 26

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.4K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 96¢

+92% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$19.7K

Total Shares33,641

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Over4 traders

Total Value$314.73

Total Shares1,201

Combined PnL-$23.86

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ET ethanaz	Underavg 48.2¢	$12.7K	$14.3K	+$1.5K	51% 571-538 (1109)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 54.1¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$1.58	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.1¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$50.44
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.2¢	$749.08	$697.05	-$52.03
PR primm	Underavg 66.3¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$346.96	46% 1015-1203 (2218)
AN Anon455	Underavg 44.7¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$343.49	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	51% 1067-1026 (2093)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 25¢	$184.96	$168.35	-$16.61	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 33¢	$139.62	$132.44	-$7.18	50% 16195-16429 (32624)
TA takeormake<$100	Underavg 74.8¢	$17.19	$17.07	-$0.13	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 34.8¢	$11.31	$11.18	-$0.13	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.76	+$0.06	51% 4547-4285 (8832)

ethanaz

Under

Invested

$12,743.67

Value

$14.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

51%

571-538 (1109)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,435.75

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$1.58

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

Both legs:

Over$2,686.6754.1¢+$50.44

Under$749.0848.2¢-$52.03

primm

Under

Invested

$2,108.68

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$346.96

Record

46%

1015-1203 (2218)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$1,484.92

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$343.49

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1067-1026 (2093)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$184.96

Value

$168.35

PnL

-$16.61

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$139.62

Value

$132.44

PnL

-$7.18

Record

50%

16195-16429 (32624)

takeormake<$100

Under

Invested

$17.19

Value

$17.07

PnL

-$0.13

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.31

Value

$11.18

PnL

-$0.13

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

4547-4285 (8832)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.