Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (67%) · Chiefs at 74¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Seahawks26¢Chiefs74¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$86.77

Smart Money Entry

73.3¢ → 74¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks26%

Chiefs74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs2 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,406

Combined PnL+$88.27

Seahawks1 trader

Total Value$2.6

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$1.5

Chiefs — 67%Seahawks — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4	Chiefsavg 71¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$76.81	48% 970-1035 (2005)
RE redvinny	Chiefsavg 76.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$11.47	75% 1356-444 (1800)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Chiefsavg 72¢	$964.39	$984.39	+$17.1	56% 2130-1695 (3825)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 72¢	$720	$740	+$50
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 26¢	$244.39	$244.39	-$32.9
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 41¢	$4.1	$2.6	-$1.5	55% 3104-2515 (5619)

forecastication4

Chiefs

Invested

$1,817.75

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$76.81

Record

48%

970-1035 (2005)

redvinny

Chiefs

Invested

$1,409.74

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$11.47

Record

75%

1356-444 (1800)

Anon455ARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$964.39

Value

$984.39

PnL

+$17.1

Record

56%

2130-1695 (3825)

Both legs:

Chiefs$72072¢+$50

Seahawks$244.3926¢-$32.9

takeormakeCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$4.1

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$1.5

Record

55%

3104-2515 (5619)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.