Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chiefs, while the market favors Seahawks (80%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Seahawks (-8.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (33%) · Chiefs at 21¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 26

Seahawks80¢Chiefs20¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

-$147.42

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 20.5¢

-61% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidChiefs at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks80%

Chiefs21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,609

Combined PnL-$0.02

Seahawks4 traders

Total Value$867.28

Total Shares1,675

Combined PnL-$147.4

Chiefs — 33%Seahawks — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Chiefsavg 50.7¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	-$49.03	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 50.7¢	$6.2K	$5.8K	-$329.45
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 47.3¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$280.42
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Chiefsavg 51.2¢	$4.4K	$4.1K	-$218.13	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 51.2¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$162.86
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 53.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$55.27
GA gannonallisonCTR	Chiefsavg 53¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	50% 256-259 (515)
JU justaluckydude	Seahawksavg 56.5¢	$908.25	$835.24	-$144.87	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Seahawksavg 48¢	$26.76	$26.2	-$0.56	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Seahawksavg 27¢	$4.59	$4.42	-$0.17	62% 4966-3093 (8059)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Chiefsavg 40¢	$2	$1.98	-$0.02	62% 24131-14569 (38700)
TA takeormake<$100	Seahawksavg 59¢	$3.21	$1.41	-$1.8	55% 3160-2554 (5714)

RN1ARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$9,009.46

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$49.03

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

Both legs:

Chiefs$6,175.9450.7¢-$329.45

Seahawks$2,833.5247.3¢+$280.42

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$4,364.58

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$218.13

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

Both legs:

Chiefs$2,573.2851.2¢-$162.86

Seahawks$1,791.353.7¢-$55.27

gannonallisonCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,380.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

256-259 (515)

justaluckydude

Seahawks

Invested

$908.25

Value

$835.24

PnL

-$144.87

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

UpTheBlues<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$26.76

Value

$26.2

PnL

-$0.56

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

Forecastication2<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$4.59

Value

$4.42

PnL

-$0.17

Record

62%

4966-3093 (8059)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

62%

24131-14569 (38700)

takeormake<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$3.21

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$1.8

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

Research grade

AvoidChiefs at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.