Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chiefs, while the market favors Seahawks (84%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (57%) · Chiefs at 16¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 26

Seahawks84¢Chiefs16¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

-$201.05

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 16¢

-69% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidChiefs at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 84%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks84%

Chiefs16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,693

Combined PnL-$21.97

Chiefs4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,330

Combined PnL-$179.07

Seahawks — 43%Chiefs — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Chiefsavg 47.8¢	$4.2K	$3.9K	-$376.11	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 47.8¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$301.41
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 60.8¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$74.7
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Chiefsavg 49.4¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$100.87	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 49.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$28.22
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 59.2¢	$831.31	$702.22	-$129.09
JU justaluckydude	Seahawksavg 64.5¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$56.68	52% 7299-6610 (13909)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Chiefsavg 64¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$343.94	67% 3627-1751 (5378)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Chiefsavg 37.6¢	$880.81	$1.1K	+$201.25	56% 2221-1759 (3980)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 37.6¢	$566.92	$626.39	+$59.47
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 40.3¢	$313.89	$455.67	+$141.78
PR primmCTR	Chiefsavg 34¢	$659.45	$701.32	+$41.87	46% 1015-1203 (2218)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Chiefsavg 57.3¢	$496.88	$554.88	+$58	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Chiefsavg 37¢	$185	$250	+$65	62% 24131-14569 (38700)
TA takeormake	Seahawksavg 52.5¢	$199.43	$233.3	+$33.87	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Seahawksavg 34¢	$56.78	$60.12	+$0.84	62% 4966-3093 (8059)

RN1ARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$4,245.41

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$376.11

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

Both legs:

Chiefs$2,281.2447.8¢-$301.41

Seahawks$1,964.1760.8¢-$74.7

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$3,041.48

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$100.87

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

Both legs:

Chiefs$2,210.1749.4¢+$28.22

Seahawks$831.3159.2¢-$129.09

justaluckydude

Seahawks

Invested

$2,065.07

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$56.68

Record

52%

7299-6610 (13909)

SunlineTickerCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,518.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$343.94

Record

67%

3627-1751 (5378)

Anon455ARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$880.81

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$201.25

Record

56%

2221-1759 (3980)

Both legs:

Chiefs$566.9237.6¢+$59.47

Seahawks$313.8940.3¢+$141.78

primmCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$659.45

Value

$701.32

PnL

+$41.87

Record

46%

1015-1203 (2218)

UpTheBluesCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$496.88

Value

$554.88

PnL

+$58

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$185

Value

$250

PnL

+$65

Record

62%

24131-14569 (38700)

takeormake

Seahawks

Invested

$199.43

Value

$233.3

PnL

+$33.87

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

Forecastication2<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$56.78

Value

$60.12

PnL

+$0.84

Record

62%

4966-3093 (8059)

Research grade

AvoidChiefs at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 84%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.